Piracy off the coast of Somalia has dropped off dramatically in 2012. Successful ship hijackings have decreased from 31 in 2011 (and 49 in 2010) to only four so far in 2012.
Attacks against ships have also decreased, falling from 199 reported attacks in the first nine months of 2011 to 70 attacks over the same span in 2012 — a 65 percent drop. However,
diminished activity does not necessarily mean a decrease in the cost of sailing around the Horn of Africa.
Somali pirates occupy a unique position, which is right along highly strategic global shipping lanes yet outside the reach of any national power. For international actors, it is politically and militarily easier to try to contain the Somali piracy threat than to eliminate it.
But containment comes at a high cost.
Somalia’s Future
The key component of the siege strategy is that it weakens the pirates’ control over their land-based sanctuaries.
Their power is connected to their revenue, so the decrease in revenue will decrease their power. The shipping companies and foreign navies hope that some other,
less disruptive enterprises will eventually take root along Somalia’s pirate-heavy coast.
In the midst of forming its first permanent government since 1991, Somalia is currently incapable of addressing its lack of control over the central Somali coast.
Instead, it is focusing on securing the population bases of Mogadishu, Kismayo and other small towns in south-central Somalia from al Shabaab.
This will occupy the government for at least the next year. Even after that, Mogadishu has little incentive to try to tighten its control over central coastal pirate towns.
The government has much more to lose if it fails in southern Somalia because it redirected scarce government resources to take on piracy.
The pirate-held areas are economically depressed and are politically less important. That’s why they started engaging in piracy in the first place.
The only force that has significantly challenged the pirates on land is the Puntland Maritime Police Force.
Located in northeast Somalia, Puntland is much more stable than the south and is virtually independent.
The Puntland Maritime Police Force had success in capturing pirates, destroying their staging bases along the beach, cutting off their supply routes and even, supposedly, attempting to seize hijacked vessels from the pirates.
However, the police force suffered from funding cuts and political opposition and appears to no longer be active against the pirates.
Although Mogadishu is unable to control much of its territory, the new government doesn’t want regional governments accumulating too much strength. In the end, a strong Puntland may be more of a risk to Mogadishu than pirates.
Without a sustained, land-based intervention, Somali piracy will continue — even if it is at a lower rate — at least until some other criminal enterprise takes its place.
But even at its lower rate, as long as Somali pirates are operating, they will be an expensive burden for the world’s shipping industry.
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